In the Daily Fantasy Sports world, Multi-Entry Tournaments can be very good for your bankroll – but, without proper planning, they can also be disastrous.
In previous articles, we have discussed the concept of overlay – the ‘free money’ that a site has to contribute when the number of entrants doesn’t fill the prizepool.
Smart DFS players know that tournaments with big overlays are often great value to enter. And with multiple entries permitted, it can be tempting to submit a load of selections in the hope of increasing your likelihood of a big payday.
Firstly, while entering a big-overlay event multiple times may increase your probability of landing a big score, it decreases the prizepool equity of every entry. This is important. The more times you enter a tournament with overlay, the less each entry is worth.
Let’s consider a $10k guaranteed tournament, with 79 entrants and you paying $100, and a $2k overlay. Your first entry is worth $125 in prizepool equity.
$10,000 prizepool / 80 entrants = $125
You are so happy that SuperLobby has helped you to identify a massive overlay, that you decide to enter a further 10 selections. Now you have 11 picks, meaning that you have ponied up $1100, but – crucially - the prizepool has not increased.
$10,000 prizepool / 90 entrants = $111.11
With every additional entry, you may be increasing your chances of winning, but you are reducing the value of every selection in the competition. This might not seem too significant on first glance – after all, $111.11 in prizepool equity in return for every $100 invested looks pretty good! However, take a moment to think about your selections.
Presumably, your first entry consists of your strongest picks. Your second entry is similar to your first, but with some selection substitutions. Your third entry bears less resemblance to your strongest line-up – and so on. You probably have very little faith in your sixth selection, and your eleventh is likely to be a shot in the dark at best.
Think about the soccer World Cup. 32 countries qualify for the event – but not every country has a 1-in-32 shot at glory. Brazil, Germany, Spain, Argentina, Holland…these countries tend to have around a 1-in-5 chance, while Honduras and Ecuador’s chances of lifting the trophy are in the ‘getting struck by lightning’ ballpark.
There is little point in chasing overlay if every additional selection is glorified guesswork. Although the maths tells us that our eleven picks are each worth $111.11 in prizepool equity, they follow a hierarchy in terms of Expected Value (EV). It is highly likely that our first three picks have a higher EV than the other eight combined – which means that our long-shot selections may in truth be worth a lot less than the $100 entry fee.
Not every entry is created equal – and SuperLobby is here to help you use this knowledge to crush the DFS world.
For more on the topics of Overlay and Finding Value in Daily Fantasy Sports, check out these articles