One of the sneaky factors that can stump DFS players is establishing exactly what constitutes good value. We now know all about overlay, and it makes sense to enter tournaments with big guaranteed prizepools that the operator is unlikely to recoup.
However, it is also important to consider YOUR skill level relative to the other entrants. The higher the buy-in, the more likely it is that you will encounter a lot of DFS professionals. These pros, whose selection strategies use more data analysis than the recreational player, have a higher Expected Value (EV) in the tournament than those who make their picks during a coffee break at work.
The beauty of DFS is that, on any given day, anybody can win. However, over the long term, the professional DFS players will earn more money than the amateurs – unless the amateurs are very adept at picking the right tournaments to enter.
Imagine that, as an amateur golfer, you were given the chance to play Rory McIlroy– and you could choose whether to compete over one hole or over 36 holes. You might have a 5% chance of victory in a one-hole shootout, but over 36 holes you are probably in 0.01% territory. Versus an elite opponent, you have a better chance of victory over the short-term than over the long-term.
The same is true of Daily Fantasy Sports. Amateurs will have some occasional victories, but over the long term they are going to lose their money if they are always competing with the pros.
At SuperLobby, we want you to be able to identify the pros quickly, so you can decide whether or not to enter the competition. Remember that overlay is just one factor – if you are playing in a field full of pros, then it might be wiser to skip the tournament and seek out a softer one. This is especially true of the Head-to-Head events – and it is why our site is dedicated to helping you improve your DFS decision-making.
For more on the topics of Overlay and Multi-Entry Tournaments, check out these articles